FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight (often shortened to 538) is an American data-journalism brand that publishes statistical analysis and forecasting, chiefly on U.S. politics and elections but also on sports, economics, science and culture. It was founded in 2008 by statistician Nate Silver as a personal blog under the name FiveThirtyEight.com — a reference to the 538 votes in the U.S. Electoral College — and quickly gained a following for its quantitative, model-driven approach to election forecasting. In 2010 the site was licensed to The New York Times, where it ran as a prominent politics and sports data vertical, before Silver moved the brand to ESPN in 2013. Under ESPN (itself part of The Walt Disney Company), FiveThirtyEight expanded its staff, added coverage areas such as science, economics and lifestyle, and produced podcasts and video content alongside its written analysis. In 2018 the brand was transferred to ABC News, another Disney unit, where it continued to publish election forecasts, polling averages and sports models. FiveThirtyEight's identity rests on transparency about methodology: it publishes its models, explains its assumptions and grades pollsters, positioning itself between traditional journalism and quantitative research. Its flagship offerings include election-forecast models, polling averages, sports prediction systems (such as its NBA and MLB models) and long-form explanatory data journalism. The brand is widely cited by other media during election cycles and is closely associated with Nate Silver, who departed in 2023. FiveThirtyEight operates primarily in the United States and reaches audiences through its website, syndication across ABC News platforms, podcasts and social media. It is a subsidiary brand within Disney's news organization rather than an independent public company.

FiveThirtyEight was launched in 2008 by Nate Silver, a statistician and former baseball analyst, as a blog focused on statistical analysis of politics and sports. The name refers to the 538 electors in the U.S. Electoral College. The site gained national attention for its quantitative election modeling, particularly during the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. In 2010, the brand entered a licensing arrangement with The New York Times, where it was published as a data-journalism vertical covering politics and sports. In 2013, Silver moved the operation to ESPN, which acquired the brand and expanded it into a larger editorial team covering politics, sports, science, economics and culture, alongside podcasts and video. In 2018, FiveThirtyEight was transferred from ESPN to ABC News, another unit of The Walt Disney Company, where it continued to publish election forecasts, polling averages and sports models. Nate Silver departed the organization in 2023. The brand remains active as a data-journalism outlet within Disney's news operations.

• 2023

  Nate Silver departs the organization

• 2018

  Transferred to ABC News

• 2013

  Moved to ESPN

• 2010

  Licensed to The New York Times

• 2008

  Founded by Nate Silver as FiveThirtyEight.com

Quantitative, methodology-transparent data journalism bridging traditional news and statistical research.

• Presidential election forecast

• Polling averages

• Pollster ratings

• Sports prediction models

• Unconfirmed

  Reported2026.08.25

  Crooked Media acquires FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast[3]Crooked Media 收购 FiveThirtyEight Politics 播客variety.com

  Crooked Media inked a deal to acquire and revive the "FiveThirtyEight Politics" podcast hosted by Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Galen Druke, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Read more

1. 1FiveThirtyEightfivethirtyeight.com
2. 2FiveThirtyEight – Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
3. 3Crooked Media 收购 FiveThirtyEight Politics 播客variety.com