Global Earthquake Model

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is an international scientific and technical initiative focused on improving how earthquake risk is measured, compared and communicated. It was initiated in 2006 by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with the aim of bringing together governments, academic institutions, international organizations and private-sector participants to create openly accessible earthquake-risk information and software. In March 2009, GEM became a legal entity in the form of a nonprofit foundation headquartered in Pavia, Italy, while its Secretariat was hosted by the European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering (EUCENTRE). GEM emerged from a recognized gap in disaster-risk knowledge. Many earthquake-prone countries, particularly in the developing world, lacked consistent national risk models, while existing information was often difficult to access, difficult to compare across borders or unavailable in a form usable by decision-makers. GEM’s objective was therefore not simply to publish an earthquake map, but to establish a common, transparent and continuously improvable framework for estimating the consequences of earthquakes worldwide. Its work was aligned with the risk-reduction priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action, which emphasized better knowledge, preparedness and mitigation as tools for reducing disaster losses. The initiative’s scientific framework combines three connected areas. The seismic-hazard component estimates the probability of earthquakes and the intensity of ground shaking at specific locations. The seismic-risk component translates hazard into potential damage and direct losses by combining information on buildings, population, exposure and vulnerability. The socio-economic-impact component addresses wider consequences, including effects on businesses, public budgets, poverty, economic activity and indirect losses. This structure is intended to support practical decisions such as strengthening buildings, improving emergency planning, prioritizing investments and developing insurance or alternative risk-transfer mechanisms. GEM’s technical approach relies on open-source software, shared data standards, common definitions, quality-control procedures and reproducible scientific methods. Global datasets provide a consistent baseline, while regional and national projects can supply more detailed information about local geology, construction practices, building inventories and population exposure. Remote sensing and crowd-sourced data collection have also been identified as ways to classify and update building and vulnerability information. The organization’s outputs are designed for use at community, national and international levels, including by researchers, governments, humanitarian organizations, engineers, financial institutions and risk professionals. A major early objective was the construction of a first working global earthquake model between 2009 and 2013. The initial implementation included a pilot project known as GEM1, global technical components, regional programs and the development of a web-based platform for sharing tools and resources. One technical stream addressed global ground-motion prediction equations for use in seismic-hazard calculations. Regional programs in Europe and the Middle East contributed more geographically specific information that could be checked and integrated into broader global models. GEM is best understood as an international knowledge infrastructure and specialist risk-information organization rather than a conventional consumer brand. Its value proposition is based on openness, scientific defensibility, interoperability and global comparability. The initiative also emphasizes training, technology transfer, workshops and awareness-building so that model outputs can lead to practical risk-reduction action. Its continuing mission is to improve earthquake-risk information over time and make that information more useful to societies facing rapid urbanization, population growth and exposure to seismic hazards.

The Global Earthquake Model was conceived in response to the uneven availability and quality of earthquake-risk information around the world. The initiative was launched in 2006 by the Global Science Forum of the OECD as a public–private partnership intended to unite scientific institutions, governments and industry around a shared global risk-assessment effort. Its underlying premise was that better knowledge of hazard and vulnerability could support safer construction, stronger emergency planning, more effective investment and wider access to insurance. Before GEM, earthquake models often differed in terminology, data structure, assumptions and geographic coverage. Some earthquake-prone regions had sophisticated studies, while others had little systematic information. This made it difficult to compare risk between countries or to construct consistent international assessments. GEM therefore sought to develop an open and standardized scientific framework rather than a proprietary model available only to a limited group of users. In March 2009, GEM was established as a nonprofit foundation under Italian law, based in Pavia. Its Secretariat was hosted by EUCENTRE, an institution specializing in earthquake engineering, training and research. The organization planned a first working global model over a five-year period running from 2009 through 2013. The early implementation included the GEM1 pilot project, global technical components, regional programs and a shared web-based environment for model development and data exchange. The planned model was organized around seismic hazard, seismic risk and socio-economic impact. Hazard analysis addressed the likelihood and intensity of earthquake shaking. Risk analysis combined hazard with exposure and vulnerability to estimate damage, deaths, injuries and direct economic losses. Socio-economic analysis extended the assessment to indirect consequences such as impacts on company revenue, government budgets, poverty and broader economic activity. This architecture was intended to connect scientific measurement with decisions about mitigation, resilience and risk financing. GEM’s implementation model combined globally consistent baseline information with more detailed regional and national contributions. International consortia worked on shared definitions, formats, quality criteria, databases and technical methods. Regional programs supplied information better adapted to local geology, construction types and exposure patterns. The organization also identified remote sensing and crowd-based data collection as means of building and updating inventories of structures and vulnerability. A technical focus of the early program was the development and comparison of global ground-motion prediction equations, which are needed to translate earthquake scenarios into expected shaking. Model components were intended to be tested through transparent and reproducible scientific experiments before formal release. This emphasis on reproducibility, common standards and open tools distinguished GEM from a static map or one-time study. The initiative’s work was framed by the disaster-risk-reduction priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action. GEM sought not only to construct an initial model but also to maintain a process of continuous improvement, disseminate results, provide training and transfer technology. Its long-term role is that of an international scientific infrastructure supporting earthquake-risk awareness and mitigation across borders.

• 2013

  Target date for the first working global model

  [1]Global Earthquake Modelen.wikipedia.org

  The original implementation plan called for completion of the first working global earthquake model by the end of 2013, followed by ongoing improvement and dissemination.

• 2009

  GEM becomes an Italian nonprofit foundation

  [1]Global Earthquake Modelen.wikipedia.org

  In March 2009, GEM became a legal nonprofit foundation based in Pavia, Italy. Its Secretariat was hosted by EUCENTRE.

• 2009

  GEM1 pilot and first model-building phase begin

  [1]Global Earthquake Modelen.wikipedia.org

  The initial implementation began with the GEM1 pilot, global model components and regional programs intended to create the infrastructure for a working global earthquake model.

• 2006

  Initiative proposed through the OECD Global Science Forum

  [1]Global Earthquake Modelen.wikipedia.org

  The Global Earthquake Model was initiated as a public–private partnership designed to improve the global availability, consistency and usability of earthquake-risk information.

An open, scientifically grounded global platform for harmonizing earthquake-hazard, exposure, vulnerability and socio-economic-impact information. GEM serves public authorities, researchers, engineers, humanitarian organizations, insurers and other risk professionals that need transparent and comparable evidence for mitigation and resilience planning.

• Global hazard and risk model · 2013

  Global Earthquake Model

  The core GEM model is intended to provide a globally consistent basis for estimating earthquake hazard, risk and socio-economic impact. It combines information about earthquake occurrence and ground motion with exposure, building vulnerability, population and economic conditions. The model is designed to support comparison between regions while allowing regional and national programs to add more detailed local information.

• Open-source risk software

  OpenQuake engine

  OpenQuake is GEM’s open-source computational platform for seismic-hazard and earthquake-risk analysis. It is intended for researchers, engineers, public authorities and risk practitioners who need to run transparent calculations, scenarios and probabilistic assessments using documented methods and data. The platform extends GEM’s objective of making earthquake-risk analysis reproducible and broadly accessible.

• Data and visualization resources

  GEM datasets and risk maps

  GEM produces and coordinates datasets, maps and related analytical resources covering seismic hazard, exposure, vulnerability and potential losses. These resources are intended to help users identify vulnerable areas, compare risk across jurisdictions and evaluate mitigation choices. Global datasets provide a common baseline, while regional and national data can improve local resolution.

• 2009

  Formalize GEM as a nonprofit foundationStrategy

  Background

  The initiative required a durable legal and organizational structure for coordinating international research, software development, data integration and dissemination.

  Action taken

  GEM became a nonprofit foundation under Italian law, based in Pavia, with its Secretariat hosted by EUCENTRE.

  Aftermath

  The foundation structure provided the institutional basis for continuing the global modeling program and coordinating partner contributions.

  Source

• 2006

  Adopt an open global earthquake-risk modeling strategyStrategy

  Background

  Earthquake-risk information was unevenly available, difficult to compare across borders and often inaccessible to potential users. GEM was created to address these limitations through a shared international framework.

  Action taken

  The initiative established a public–private partnership involving scientific, governmental and industry stakeholders and pursued open-source software, common standards, shared datasets and globally comparable assessments.

  Aftermath

  The strategy shaped GEM’s later work on global, regional and national model components, reproducible analysis and risk-reduction applications.

  Source

1. 1Global Earthquake Modelen.wikipedia.org
2. 2Global Earthquake Model official websiteglobalquakemodel.org
3. 3Globalizing quake informationnature.com