Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction-market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
Last updated October 29, 2026
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Overview
Polymarket is a prediction-market platform that lets users buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of real-world events, from elections and economic indicators to sports and cultural happenings. Prices on the platform function as crowd-sourced probabilities, and the brand has become widely cited in media as a real-time gauge of sentiment around major news events. The company was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan and is headquartered in New York City. The platform is built on blockchain infrastructure, using smart contracts to settle trades and a stablecoin-based settlement layer so that positions can be resolved transparently. Polymarket gained significant public attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, when its odds were frequently referenced by journalists and analysts. That visibility also brought regulatory scrutiny: Polymarket reached a settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 over offering event contracts without proper registration, and it later restricted U.S. users before re-entering the American market through a regulated arrangement. Polymarket's business model centers on trading activity rather than traditional advertising, and the brand has expanded through partnerships with media organizations that embed its probability data into news coverage. It competes in a broader ecosystem of prediction markets and event-contract platforms, and its brand is closely associated with the intersection of crypto, finance, and information markets. The company remains privately held.
History
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan as a blockchain-based prediction market. The platform allowed users to trade shares on the outcomes of events, with prices serving as market-implied probabilities. It attracted a crypto-native user base and gained traction as a source of election forecasting data. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission over allegations that it operated an unregistered facility for event contracts, agreeing to pay a penalty and to wind down certain U.S.-facing markets. The company subsequently restricted access for U.S. users while continuing to operate internationally. Polymarket's profile rose sharply during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when its odds were widely cited across mainstream media. The platform's visibility made it a reference point for political forecasting, and it pursued partnerships to distribute its data. It later moved to re-enter the U.S. market through a regulated structure, reflecting the evolving legal treatment of event contracts. The company remains privately held and continues to operate its core prediction-market product.
- 2024
Gained widespread media attention during the U.S. presidential election cycle.
- 2022
Settled with the U.S. CFTC over unregistered event contracts and restricted U.S. access.
- 2020
Polymarket founded by Shayne Coplan.
Products and positioning
A decentralized, crypto-native prediction market positioned as a real-time information and forecasting tool.
Prediction markets
Event-based markets where prices reflect implied probabilities.
Controversies
2026
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged illegal gambling
The Mayor and City Council of Baltimore filed separate lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing the prediction market platforms of operating as illegal gambling operators without required state licenses and of misleading customers about the legality of their platforms. Baltimore is seeking civil penalties, injunctive relief, restitution, disgorgement, and additional relief.
2026
CFTC investigates Polymarket’s compliance with 2022 settlement
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether Polymarket violated a 2022 settlement that barred U.S. users from its offshore platform. The inquiry also concerns Polymarket’s location-detection controls and U.S. advertising. According to the source, the investigation’s start date was not provided. The report does not specify any findings, allegations beyond the compliance question, or outcomes of the inquiry.
2022
CFTC orders Polymarket to pay $1.4 million
The CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million fine to settle allegations that it offered illegal trading through event-based binary-options contracts. The article says Polymarket did not admit or deny wrongdoing in the settlement.
Recent events
Reported
Polymarket launches 15-minute gold and silver contracts[5]
Polymarket launched high-speed 15-minute gold and silver up/down contracts, using Chainlink as their official oracle.
- Unconfirmed
Reported
CFTC investigates Polymarket’s compliance with 2022 settlement[3]
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether Polymarket violated a 2022 settlement that barred U.S. users from its offshore platform. The inquiry also concerns Polymarket’s location-detection controls and U.S. advertising; the source says the investigation’s start date was not provided.
- Unconfirmed
NBA partners with Kalshi and Polymarket[6]
The NBA announced partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, naming them its Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges and granting them NBA intellectual property and marketing rights, promotional activations, and official NBA data for authorized NBA-related markets.
Reported
Polymarket activates ROCKY referral code offering $25 bonus on $10 deposit for new US users[7]
As of October 15, 2026, Polymarket's referral code ROCKY was verified and active for new US accounts, offering $25 in bonus trading funds after a $10 first deposit ($35 total starting balance), usable across all open prediction markets. The offer was publicized around the Alabama vs. Tennessee college football game and is limited to one new account per user in Tennessee, Alabama and other eligible US states.
Reported
Polymarket appoints Goldman Sachs veteran Lisa Mantil as head of institutional growth[8]
Prediction market exchange Polymarket announced on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026, that it has hired Lisa Mantil, a nearly three-decade Goldman Sachs veteran who was most recently a Goldman partner and global head of the bank's ETF accelerator, as its head of institutional growth. She will lead Polymarket's push to attract institutional traders and Wall Street liquidity.
Weekdays and relative dates follow the original report; their exact calendar dates have not been verified.
Reported
Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged illegal gambling[2]
The Mayor and City Council of Baltimore filed separate lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket on Thursday, accusing the prediction market platforms of operating as illegal gambling operators without required state licenses and of misleading customers about the legality of their platforms. Baltimore is seeking civil penalties, injunctive relief, restitution, disgorgement, and additional relief.
Weekdays and relative dates follow the original report; their exact calendar dates have not been verified.
- Unconfirmed
Reported
CFTC orders Polymarket to pay $1.4 million[4]
The CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million fine to settle allegations that it offered illegal trading through event-based binary-options contracts. The article says Polymarket did not admit or deny wrongdoing in the settlement.
Sources13 sources
- 1Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Baltimore sues Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged illegal gamblingcovers.com
- 3CFTC investigates Polymarket’s compliance with 2022 settlementcnbc.com
- 4CFTC orders Polymarket to pay $1.4 millionvegasslotsonline.com
- 5Polymarket推出15分钟黄金和白银合约fow.com
- 6NBA与Kalshi和Polymarket建立合作关系600wmtradio.iheart.com
- 7Polymarket 启用 ROCKY 推荐码，新美国用户存入10美元可获25美元奖励rockytopinsider.com
- 8Polymarket任命高盛老将Lisa Mantil为机构增长主管cnbc.com
- 9NBA Partners With Kalshi, Polymarket For Prediction Markets | Newstalk 1400, 104.5, and 105.9 WJMXnewstalk1400online.iheart.com
- 10NBA Partners With Kalshi, Polymarket For Prediction Markets | The Patriot KEIB AM 1150patriotla.iheart.com
- 11NBA Partners With Prediction Markets Kalshi And Polymarket - Poker Newscardplayer.com
- 12NBA strikes deals with prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarketnbcconnecticut.com
- 13The NBA’s response to gambling scandals is to add more gambling partnershipstheverge.com
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